Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Trucking and the economy

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Trucking and the economy

    When the trucks are rolling, the economy is singing. Need to have orders from the manufacturing to the suppliers to fill those trucks. People buying mean orders and the same goes for the rail industry.
    The next inevitable step is for the companies to slow purchases of equipment. The slowdown starts to pick up speed with each sector winding down until it hits every person and every community.
    Let's look at the basics. Class 8 truck orders have dropped hard. Trailer orders have followed suit.
    The rail industry has recorded a 9.4% drop as the same time last year.
    Look at the facts and the numbers, then draw your own conclusions. Then tell me why you think I might be wrong on my viewpoint.

    Class 8 truck orders tumble in November
    Preliminary orders for new Class 8 trucks tumbled again in November after one month of improved bookings, new evidence that a slowing manufacturing economy is sapping all but critical replacement demand.
    FTR Transportation Intelligence reported orders by the six major brands totaled 17,300 units, the slowest November since 2015 and 39% below November 2018, when a frenzied truck order boom was starting to lose steam.
    https://www.freightwaves.com/news/cl...le-in-november

    Trailer Orders Fall Amid Concerns Over 2020
    FTR reported preliminary net U.S. trailer orders for November dropped to 20,200 as fleets are becoming more cautious about freight conditions in 2020.
    There is still too much uncertainty regarding the economy, trade, tariffs and politics for companies to have a great deal of confidence right now for 2020.”
    https://www.ttnews.com/articles/trai...erns-over-2020

    Rail Traffic for the Week Ending December 7, 2019
    WASHINGTON, D.C. – December 11, 2019 – The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending December 7, 2019.
    For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 517,130 carloads and intermodal units, down 9.4 percent compared with the same week last year.
    Total carloads for the week ending December 7 were 248,174 carloads, down 7.2 percent compared with the same week in 2018, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 268,956 containers and trailers, down 11.3 percent compared to 2018.
    https://www.aar.org/news/rail-traffi...cember-7-2019/

  • #2
    Re: Trucking and the economy

    Let's see now. Even one of the big boys in the industry has reported lower earnings.

    FedEx’s Q2 Earnings Tumble, Even More Than Wall Street Expected
    FedEx Corp. reported lower-than-expected second-quarter fiscal year 2020 earnings Dec. 17, missing Wall Street analysts’ expectations.
    For the quarter ending Nov. 30, the Memphis, Tenn.-based shipping giant reported net income was $560 million, or $2.13 per diluted share — slipping from $935 million, or $3.51 a share, for the same period a year ago.
    Quarterly revenue declined to $17.3 billion from $17.8 billion during the same time in 2018.
    Wall Street analysts had been projecting the company would earn $2.80 a share and have revenue of $17.68 billion, according to Nasdaq.com.

    Company officials acknowledged this has been a particularly tough quarter.
    Yep ... sure is a great economy.

    https://www.ttnews.com/articles/fede...treet-expected

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Trucking and the economy

      I don't know about truck orders and all but I'm pretty sure our terminal usually gets slow between Thanksgiving and Easter. Somewhere in that time period and it is slowing now.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Trucking and the economy

        https://www.truckinginfo.com/346702/...assembly-plant

        Volvo Announces Layoffs at New River Valley Assembly Plant

        Volvo Trucks North American is scaling back its truck manufacturing operations at its New River Valley plant in Dublin, Virginia, with company officials citing declining heavy truck orders for a pending layoff of 700 assembly line workers. The layoffs will take place in January of next year.

        The news comes on the heels of a recent strike at the Mack Trucks assembly plant in Macungie, Pennsylvania, early this Fall, which forced parent company Volvo to idle the New River Valley production line during the 12-day negotiating period.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Trucking and the economy

          Originally posted by slavenomore View Post
          I don't know about truck orders and all but I'm pretty sure our terminal usually gets slow between Thanksgiving and Easter. Somewhere in that time period and it is slowing now.
          I would think tractor and trailer orders, something that wouldn't be delivered until later in the year, might reflect what the companies feel, or see as an upcoming downturn in the economy. Then again, judging by the lower earnings from most companies, they have already seen a downturn in the economy.
          Cars aren't selling and people aren't buying as much as before.
          Christmas time always has robust sales, so the past month really can't factor into the equation.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Trucking and the economy

            Mack in Pennsylvania has announced a slowdown, with a possible lay-offs in the future.

            Mack Trucks Plans Down Weeks, Possible Layoffs at Pennsylvania Plant
            After two years of strong demand, the heavy-duty truck market is shifting into a lower gear, a slowdown that likely will lead to layoffs at Mack Trucks’ assembly plant in Lower Macungie Township, Pa.
            “We have communicated to our employees that we’ll have to adapt production to reduced demand sometime in the first quarter of 2020,” Mack spokesman Christopher Heffner told The Morning Call on Dec. 18. “Unfortunately, we do expect that this will mean layoffs, but it’s too soon to say how many or when.”
            In addition, Heffner said, Mack is planning two down weeks at the plant near the end of the first quarter to meet the lower demand. Another two down weeks — which means a majority of the plant will be on temporary layoff — will come early in the second quarter, allowing Mack to complete work on its chassis-insourcing project, he said.
            The news of additional down weeks and potential layoffs is not unexpected at the plant, which built its employment up to 2,400 workers as orders flew in during 2018 and production surged through much of this year as Mack chipped away at an order backlog. But things are slowing down, as they do every few years in the cyclical industry, a reality that prompted fellow truck makers to announce layoffs in recent weeks.
            https://www.ttnews.com/articles/mack...sylvania-plant

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Trucking and the economy

              This could go in the port drivers thread, or here as it affects both.
              In general, it speaks volumes about the cascading effect of these tariffs and the enormous strain put on thousands of people.
              The wealthy never get hurt. Those, who in their infinite wisdom started this "trade war", didn't think this though enough to see the long term impact to so many as they sit in their bathroom, with gold facets, and tweet about how unfair things are to them.

              Trade War Turns Seasons Upside Down for Truckers at L.A. Port
              It should be the busiest time of year for truck drivers like Gerald Rogers at the Los Angeles docks. Instead, they’re scrapping over leaner cargoes thanks to the trade war.
              Rogers, 35, said last year he was shuttling as many as four loads a day between the port and its storage facilities. Now it’s down to two — if he’s lucky. “The tariffs have changed the landscape,” he says. “China isn’t shipping as much, it’s cutting back on manufacturing. And when the loads don’t come, there’s not enough work for all of us.”
              The U.S.-China pact announced last week has taken tensions in the 20-month trade conflict down a notch, but its effects are still rippling through the economies of the main protagonists — and the rest of the world, too.
              Supply chains are shifting from China to other Asian manufacturing nations, and even some European ones, while East Coast ports are making investments that are boosting their competitive edge, according to Weston LaBar, chief executive of the Harbor Trucking Association.
              Rogers says he’s hoping Trump’s new trade deal will smooth things out. But “what I’m hearing from the Chinese shippers is that it’s an irreversible change,” he says. “This might be the outcome for years to come. We shouldn’t expect things to resume to normal.”
              https://www.ttnews.com/articles/trad...uckers-la-port

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Trucking and the economy

                More proof that the tariffs harmed more then just the farmers. The cascading effect of loses trickled down to the transportation industry to. Imagine how many jobs were lost ? How much money people didn't make ? How many places of business failed ? Finally the total cost, besides what our government spent to bail out just the farmers, big AG and those who were directly affected by this disastrous trade war. Billions !

                2019: Freight Market Slowdown, Tariffs Diminished Trucking Industry's Performance
                A year ago, motor carriers, logistics firms and freight shippers were buoyed by many of the same factors that lifted their customers: U.S. consumers spending big on e-commerce, a lower corporate tax rate, and affordable and abundant fuel. But after last year’s rush to capitalize on that booming market, carriers this year found themselves with an abundance of capacity and fewer loads — along with a host of other challenges.
                A lengthy trade spat between the United States and China — which had begun to thaw as 2019 drew to a close — caused freight to slow during the year, according to Bob Costello, chief economist for American Trucking Associations. Costello also blamed declines in U.S. manufacturing for lower freight volumes in 2019. All of this caused rates to soften — especially spot rates, Costello said, even as contractual rates remained fairly consistent.
                A bright spot for shippers amid the trade war was e-commerce. While consumers’ growing online spending habits boosted demand for final-mile deliveries, some carriers struggled to incorporate the service into their operations. One was Schneider, which had been operating a final-mile unit for three years. The Green Bay, Wis., carrier said Aug. 1 that it would shutter its Schneider Direct segment.
                https://www.ttnews.com/articles/2019...ys-performance
                Last edited by fxstc07; 12-23-2019, 07:54 PM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Trucking and the economy

                  I don't see any good news in this report. All sectors report a downward trend, including defense orders, equipment and durable goods.

                  Factory Orders Fall 2%; Transportation Equipment Orders Dive 5.9%
                  Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods fell by the largest amount in six months, led by a large decrease in orders for defense aircraft and parts. A closely watched category that tracks business investment ticked up 0.1%.
                  Orders for durable goods fell 2% last month, the biggest decline since May, the Commerce Department said Dec. 23. Orders have fallen in two of the past three months. October's number was revised down to 0.2% from a 0.6% gain.
                  Transportation equipment orders fell 5.9%, its biggest decline since May. Excluding transportation, new orders were flat.
                  Orders for motor vehicles and parts did rebound, up 1.9%, but it wasn't enough to offset the large decrease in defense aircraft orders.
                  Excluding defense, new orders were up 0.8%.
                  Orders for defense aircraft and parts fell 72.7% and are down 14% the past year.
                  Demand for commercial aircraft and parts fell 1.8% last month and is down 38% this year.
                  American manufacturing has been hurt by a prolonged trade war with China and a slowing global economy. So far this year, orders for durable goods, items expected to last at least three years, are down 1.3%.
                  The Commerce Department said Dec. 20 that the gross domestic product — the economy's total output of goods and services — expanded at a moderate annual rate of 2.1% in the July-September quarter.
                  https://www.ttnews.com/articles/fact...orders-dive-59

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Trucking and the economy

                    Originally posted by fxstc07 View Post
                    I don't see any good news in this report. All sectors report a downward trend, including defense orders, equipment and durable goods.

                    Factory Orders Fall 2%; Transportation Equipment Orders Dive 5.9%




                    https://www.ttnews.com/articles/fact...orders-dive-59
                    I can vouche for the decline in regards to defense orders. Pretty slow.

                    Sent from my SM-J327T using Tapatalk

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Trucking and the economy

                      Predictions for 2020 not looking so good.

                      Truck Orders to Plunge, GDP to Fall Lower, Diesel Prices to Rise in 2020
                      As 2020 begins, the signs are mixed for trucking. Expectations for an environment marked by weaker freight demand, pressure on profitability, higher-priced diesel and falling truck and trailer production mix with lingering talk in some circles of a possible recession. An uncertain national political environment could also chill business outlooks.
                      At the same time, hopeful signs are appearing — U.S.-China tariffs appear to be getting sorted out and a new trade agreement vital to trucking is on tap. And despite the nearer-term outlook, equipment suppliers continue to invest for better times.
                      In related news, on Jan. 1, a new International Maritime Organization rule went into effect that requires global shipping companies to cut the sulfur emissions from ocean vessels dramatically, either by cleaning up or replacing “bunker fuel” — the sulfur-rich residue left over once refineries have made gasoline and diesel that ocean vessels have burned for years.
                      Some in trucking were worried that a switch among maritime operators to ultra low-sulfur diesel from bunker fuel would put pressure on ULSD supplies for trucking.
                      In the meantime, significant declines are ahead in 2020 for medium- and heavy-duty truck production and sales as a result of lower trends in net orders and backlog volumes, said Kenny Vieth, ACT Research’s president.
                      “Recent articles point to a growing belief that a recession is likely to be averted in 2020, so the economic ‘days’ are likely to become brighter as we move through 2020,” Vieth said. “Unfortunately for the industry, the expected rebound will not come soon enough, or be robust enough, to take a sharp equipment downturn off the table.”
                      Traditional truck makers also head into 2020 working to prepare for the commercial launch of electric-powered models sooner rather than later.
                      https://www.ttnews.com/articles/truc...ices-rise-2020

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Trucking and the economy

                        Automated refer load made it from California to Quakertown PA last month.
                        My personal opinion is to stop the automation which will kill jobs....the Distribution Centers will be next....we need to pit our people before business profits.. Until we figure out how all the unemployed will survive. It needs to be stopped for awhile.

                        https://www.phillyvoice.com/self-dri...ertown-butter/

                        BY ADAM HERMANN
                        PhillyVoice Staff
                        UPDATED DEC 11, 2019 AT 02:38 PM
                        The first cross-country commercial freight trip completed by a self-driving semi truck finished its journey in Quakertown this week.

                        Silicon Valley-based startup Plus.ai announced the completion of its truck's three-day trip, which began in Tulare, California, and successfully delivered a truckload of Land O'Lakes butter to Bucks County (almost) entirely without driver interference, according to CNET.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Trucking and the economy

                          Originally posted by slavenomore View Post
                          Automated refer load made it from California to Quakertown PA last month.
                          My personal opinion is to stop the automation which will kill jobs....the Distribution Centers will be next....we need to pit our people before business profits.. Until we figure out how all the unemployed will survive. It needs to be stopped for awhile.

                          https://www.phillyvoice.com/self-dri...ertown-butter/

                          BY ADAM HERMANN
                          PhillyVoice Staff
                          UPDATED DEC 11, 2019 AT 02:38 PM
                          The first cross-country commercial freight trip completed by a self-driving semi truck finished its journey in Quakertown this week.

                          Silicon Valley-based startup Plus.ai announced the completion of its truck's three-day trip, which began in Tulare, California, and successfully delivered a truckload of Land O'Lakes butter to Bucks County (almost) entirely without driver interference, according to CNET.
                          Just absolutely crazy and it is happening at a speed I never imagined. I truly feel this country is doomed. When all the truck drivers lose their jobs, you know we are in big trouble.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Trucking and the economy

                            Originally posted by ABFwife View Post
                            Just absolutely crazy and it is happening at a speed I never imagined. I truly feel this country is doomed. When all the truck drivers lose their jobs, you know we are in big trouble.
                            The latest jobs thing is huge Distribution Centers.
                            My Dad drove for a company who hauled Keebler Cookies in the 80's for some extra $. They already had a big warehouse(for that time period) which only had a handful of guys working there. It was fully automated back then.
                            Once the trucks are automated....I would think all these brand new Distribution jobs will go next...andcthere are lots here right now.


                            I would think our government needs to put our people over business profits......or we will have major unrest eventually.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Trucking and the economy

                              Originally posted by slavenomore View Post
                              The latest jobs thing is huge Distribution Centers.
                              My Dad drove for a company who hauled Keebler Cookies in the 80's for some extra $. They already had a big warehouse(for that time period) which only had a handful of guys working there. It was fully automated back then.
                              Once the trucks are automated....I would think all these brand new Distribution jobs will go next...andcthere are lots here right now.


                              I would think our government needs to put our people over business profits......or we will have major unrest eventually.
                              You forget one thing.
                              Technology stops for no one, and it will continue to replace jobs and open up careers in other fields to supply the new technology.
                              Before you say anything, I was one of those displaced by the advent of new technology. I was a motion picture operator, and that job evolved from the time I entered, until I left the profession in 1978. That continued to change until present day with digital projection and no need for any man in the projection booth.
                              Learn from it, move forward and accept that change is inevitable.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X